The Race is On!

Buckle up, South County. Election mania is upon us again. 

As was widely expected, the San Diego County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday voted to hold a special election to replace recently departed District 1 Supervisor Nora Vargas. Vargas resigned abruptly last month, citing unspecified “safety and security” reasons. 

The election will be held in-person and by mail on Tuesday, April 8. If no candidate wins a majority of votes, a run-off election will be held July 1. Supervisors said they expect the winner of the election to be sworn in no later than August. 

In the meantime, the 641,435 residents of District 1, which stretches from southern portions of the city of San Diego to the U.S.-Mexico border, have no elected representative in county government. A county spokesperson said Vargas’ staff remains on the job and “the county is committed to serving the residents of District 1 and all of those in the region during this transition to ensure they have the support and services they need.” 

Four candidates have announced their intention to run for Vargas’ seat: Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre; Chula Vista Councilmember Carolina Chavez; Chula Vista Mayor John McCann; and San Diego City Councilmember Vivan Moreno. 

In recent days, I’ve been talking to the candidates, their campaign consultants and other political insiders to get a sense of how the race is shaping up. I’ll share what I’ve learned in coming weeks. 

For now, expect to see the candidates hustling for money, endorsements and the coveted backing of labor unions (who typically support Democrats), real estate interests (who prefer Republicans) and other influential political players. 

To help you make sense of this race, Voice of San Diego is publishing a series of in-depth Q&As with each candidate. The first of those interviews, with Paloma Aguirre, appeared last week. This week’s, with Vivian Moreno, will appear tomorrow. 

We also recently conducted an analysis of November’s election results with our Public Matters partners, KPBS and inewsource. Last week, I met with a group of 10 South County voters in National City to learn more about how they voted in November and what issues guided their choice. I’ll share insights from that conversation later this week. 

One finding likely to affect the race for Supervisor: South County voters shifted markedly to the right in November. That surprising result in a typically reliable Democratic stronghold already appears to be shaping candidates’ messages. Candidates are stepping back from progressive stances and taking a harder line on issues such as immigration and public safety. 

Last week, Vivian Moreno became the latest candidate to voice opposition to one of Nora Vargas’ signature initiatives, a controversial sanctuary policy that seeks to limit San Diego County officials’ cooperation with federal immigration authorities. 

“I wouldn’t support that policy,” Moreno told me in an interview last week. “We need to make sure we give [law enforcement officers] as much deference as we can.” 

Expect more such positioning as the race evolves. Like I said, buckle up! 

Jim Hinch | January 14, 2025 | Voice of San Diego

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